UK Growth Slows to 0.1% in November – Business Live |  Business

UK Growth Slows to 0.1% in November – Business Live | Business

UK Growth Slows to 0.1% in November – Business Live |  Business

GDP: The UK economy grew by 0.1% in November.

Breaking: The UK economy grew slightly in November, better than City economists had expected [they had forecast a 0.2% contraction].

The Office for National Statistics reports that UK GDP grew by 0.1% in November, a slowdown from the 0.5% increase recorded in October.

But “looking at the bigger picture”, adds the ONS, GDP fell by 0.3% in the three months to November 2022.

Growth at telecommunications and computer programming companies helped the UK economy to expand, just 0.1%, in November, says ONS director of economic statistics Darren Morgan.

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Pubs and bars also did well as people went out to watch World Cup games, he explains, with England and Wales both playing in Qatar.

“,”elementId”:”90107951-17c3-4547-9f7c-e9f704588870″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

But this was “partially offset” by further falls in some manufacturing industries, including the pharmaceutical industry (where output can be erratic).

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Strikes also hit the transport and postal sectors, Morgan says, adding:

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“Over the last three months, however, the economy still shrank – mainly due to the impact of the extra bank holiday for the funeral of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth in September.”

\n

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Commenting on today’s GDP figures, Darren Morgan said: (1/3)

⬇️ pic.twitter.com/ivYR1sEsgU

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 13, 2023

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Darren Morgan continued: (2/3)

⬇️ pic.twitter.com/ghX6AbpIYW

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 13, 2023

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1613793731680796672″,”id”:”1613793731680796672″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”25b97c74-05e3-4e1a-9ef1-f94d90ee4437″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

Darren Morgan also said: (3/3)

⬇️ pic.twitter.com/g9dLabtuw8

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 13, 2023

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1613793934848688129″,”id”:”1613793934848688129″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”39c29a57-8b3e-49c2-a09f-c5ef0ab79a67″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1673594172000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”02.16 EST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1673594547000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”02.22 EST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1673594547000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”02.22 EST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”02.22″,”title”:”ONS: The economy grew a little in November, but strikes hit economy”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Fri 13 Jan 2023 02.29 EST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Fri 13 Jan 2023 01.39 EST”},{“id”:”63c104a18f085fda3e65dd27″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor of the Exchequer, says:

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“We have a clear plan to halve inflation this year – an insidious hidden tax which has led to hikes in interest rates and mortgage costs, holding back growth here and around the world.

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“To support families through this tough patch, we will provide an average of £3,500 support for every household over this year and next – but the most important help we can give is to stick to the plan to halve inflation this year so we get the economy growing again.”

\n

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The UK’s services sector grew by 0.2% during November, with the men’s World Cup in Qatar providing a boost to pubs and bars, as supporters gathered to watch games.

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But manufacturing continued to struggle, with its output falling by 0.5%.

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The construction sector stagnated.

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GDP grew 0.1% in November with

▪️ services up 0.2%
▪️ manufacturing down 0.5%
▪️ construction flat (0.0%)

➡️ https://t.co/TbV9f82F6z pic.twitter.com/fqg8kNF4c6

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 13, 2023

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1613793281237815296″,”id”:”1613793281237815296″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”2437755b-3abc-487a-aa4d-678fad157e6a”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Here’s the details of how the UK economy performed in November, from the Office for National Statistics:

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  • The services sector grew by 0.2% in November 2022, after growth of 0.7% (revised up from a growth 0.6% in our previous publication) in October 2022; the largest contributions came from administrative and support service activities and information and communication.

  • \n

  • Output in consumer-facing services grew by 0.4% in November 2022, following growth of 1.5% (revised up from a growth of 1.2% in our previous publication) in October 2022; the largest contribution to growth came from food and beverage service activities in a month where the FIFA World Cup started.

  • \n

  • Production output decreased by 0.2% in November 2022, after a fall of 0.1% (revised down from flat in our previous publication) in October 2022; manufacturing was the main driver of negative production growth in November 2022, partially offset by a positive contribution from mining and quarrying.

  • \n

  • The construction sector was flat in November 2022 after growth of 0.4% (revised down from growth of 0.8% in our previous publication) in October 2022.

  • \n

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Breaking: the UK economy grew slightly in November, better than City economists expected [they had forecast a 0.2% contraction].

“,”elementId”:”1944e092-6b4c-495e-82a3-d4ac5b4e225f”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The Office for National Statistics reports that UK GDP rose by 0.1% in November, a slowdown on the 0.5% growth recorded in October.

“,”elementId”:”be9e47ef-0662-4c5b-9188-78a13ced8bcc”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

But “looking at the broader picture”, the ONS adds, GDP fell by 0.3% in the three months to November 2022.

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Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

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We’re about to learn how well, or badly, the UK economy fared in November, as the recession looms.

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The Office for National Statistics is due to release its GDP monthly estimate for November at 7am. Economists predict the UK economy shrank by around 0.2% in November, after better-than-expected growth of 0.5% in October.

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A fall in GDP in November wouldn’t officially put the UK into a technical recession – defined as shrinking for two consecutive quarters – but it could signal that one is close.

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UK GDP did fall in the third quarter of 2022, by 0.3%, so a contraction in the October-December quarter would mean a recession (we’ll get Q4 data in a month’s time).

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Soaring energy prices have hit the economy, weakening consumer spending as the cost of living crisis left consumers with less to spend.

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Alvin Tan of RBC Capital Markets told clients:

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We expect that GDP contracted again in November.

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Retail sales have provided a good guide to the pattern of activity of late, and they fell by 0.4% m/m in November.

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UK monthly GDP on the cards in the session aheadhttps://t.co/LozYN9BJus

— ForexLive (@ForexLive) January 13, 2023

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Analysts at investment bank Nomura also predicted a month-on-month contraction in November, saying:

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“We think that GDP is due a fall bearing in mind the weaker surveys and higher inflation, and as such forecast a 0.3 per cent m-o-m drop in November.”

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UK housebuilders have warned this week that demand slowed last autumn, as the turmoil following the mini-budget.

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The agenda

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  • 7am GMT: UK GDP report for November

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  • 7am GMT: UK trade report for November

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  • 9am GMT: Full Year GDP growth report for Germany

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  • 10am GMT: Eurozone trade balance for November

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  • 3pm GMT: University of Michigan index of US consumer sentiment

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Key events

Growth at telecommunications and computer programming companies helped the UK economy to expand, just 0.1%, in November, says ONS director of economic statistics Darren Morgan.

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Pubs and bars also did well as people went out to watch World Cup games, he explains, with England and Wales both playing in Qatar.

“,”elementId”:”90107951-17c3-4547-9f7c-e9f704588870″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

But this was “partially offset” by further falls in some manufacturing industries, including the pharmaceutical industry (where output can be erratic).

“,”elementId”:”4e76a0fd-9872-480e-91e0-440585646fb3″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Strikes also hit the transport and postal sectors, Morgan says, adding:

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“Over the last three months, however, the economy still shrank – mainly due to the impact of the extra bank holiday for the funeral of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth in September.”

\n

“,”elementId”:”d901a207-7dff-48a0-abe2-52693b590c97″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

Commenting on today’s GDP figures, Darren Morgan said: (1/3)

⬇️ pic.twitter.com/ivYR1sEsgU

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 13, 2023

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1613793499484229633″,”id”:”1613793499484229633″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”fb55370f-4471-4f98-b5a7-6d014eaf3de4″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

Darren Morgan continued: (2/3)

⬇️ pic.twitter.com/ghX6AbpIYW

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 13, 2023

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1613793731680796672″,”id”:”1613793731680796672″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”25b97c74-05e3-4e1a-9ef1-f94d90ee4437″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

Darren Morgan also said: (3/3)

⬇️ pic.twitter.com/g9dLabtuw8

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 13, 2023

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Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor of the Exchequer, says:

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“We have a clear plan to halve inflation this year – an insidious hidden tax which has led to hikes in interest rates and mortgage costs, holding back growth here and around the world.

\n

“To support families through this tough patch, we will provide an average of £3,500 support for every household over this year and next – but the most important help we can give is to stick to the plan to halve inflation this year so we get the economy growing again.”

\n

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The UK’s services sector grew by 0.2% during November, with the men’s World Cup in Qatar providing a boost to pubs and bars, as supporters gathered to watch games.

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But manufacturing continued to struggle, with its output falling by 0.5%.

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The construction sector stagnated.

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GDP grew 0.1% in November with

▪️ services up 0.2%
▪️ manufacturing down 0.5%
▪️ construction flat (0.0%)

➡️ https://t.co/TbV9f82F6z pic.twitter.com/fqg8kNF4c6

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 13, 2023

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1613793281237815296″,”id”:”1613793281237815296″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”2437755b-3abc-487a-aa4d-678fad157e6a”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Here’s the details of how the UK economy performed in November, from the Office for National Statistics:

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    \n

  • The services sector grew by 0.2% in November 2022, after growth of 0.7% (revised up from a growth 0.6% in our previous publication) in October 2022; the largest contributions came from administrative and support service activities and information and communication.

  • \n

  • Output in consumer-facing services grew by 0.4% in November 2022, following growth of 1.5% (revised up from a growth of 1.2% in our previous publication) in October 2022; the largest contribution to growth came from food and beverage service activities in a month where the FIFA World Cup started.

  • \n

  • Production output decreased by 0.2% in November 2022, after a fall of 0.1% (revised down from flat in our previous publication) in October 2022; manufacturing was the main driver of negative production growth in November 2022, partially offset by a positive contribution from mining and quarrying.

  • \n

  • The construction sector was flat in November 2022 after growth of 0.4% (revised down from growth of 0.8% in our previous publication) in October 2022.

  • \n

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Breaking: the UK economy grew slightly in November, better than City economists expected [they had forecast a 0.2% contraction].

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The Office for National Statistics reports that UK GDP rose by 0.1% in November, a slowdown on the 0.5% growth recorded in October.

“,”elementId”:”be9e47ef-0662-4c5b-9188-78a13ced8bcc”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

But “looking at the broader picture”, the ONS adds, GDP fell by 0.3% in the three months to November 2022.

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Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

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We’re about to learn how well, or badly, the UK economy fared in November, as the recession looms.

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The Office for National Statistics is due to release its GDP monthly estimate for November at 7am. Economists predict the UK economy shrank by around 0.2% in November, after better-than-expected growth of 0.5% in October.

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A fall in GDP in November wouldn’t officially put the UK into a technical recession – defined as shrinking for two consecutive quarters – but it could signal that one is close.

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UK GDP did fall in the third quarter of 2022, by 0.3%, so a contraction in the October-December quarter would mean a recession (we’ll get Q4 data in a month’s time).

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Soaring energy prices have hit the economy, weakening consumer spending as the cost of living crisis left consumers with less to spend.

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Alvin Tan of RBC Capital Markets told clients:

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We expect that GDP contracted again in November.

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Retail sales have provided a good guide to the pattern of activity of late, and they fell by 0.4% m/m in November.

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UK monthly GDP on the cards in the session aheadhttps://t.co/LozYN9BJus

— ForexLive (@ForexLive) January 13, 2023

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Analysts at investment bank Nomura also predicted a month-on-month contraction in November, saying:

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“We think that GDP is due a fall bearing in mind the weaker surveys and higher inflation, and as such forecast a 0.3 per cent m-o-m drop in November.”

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UK housebuilders have warned this week that demand slowed last autumn, as the turmoil following the mini-budget.

“,”elementId”:”c0a850dd-33cb-418c-ab10-3891128845b3″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/11/barratt-hiring-freeze-uk-housing-market-slows-down”,”text”:”Barratt brings in hiring freeze as UK housing market slows down”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”thumbnail”,”elementId”:”a66e967d-c8b6-4d95-8bbf-79ffdf855e24″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.SubheadingBlockElement”,”html”:”

The agenda

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  • 7am GMT: UK GDP report for November

  • \n

  • 7am GMT: UK trade report for November

  • \n

  • 9am GMT: Full Year GDP growth report for Germany

  • \n

  • 10am GMT: Eurozone trade balance for November

  • \n

  • 3pm GMT: University of Michigan index of US consumer sentiment

  • \n

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Filters BETA

ONS: The economy grew a bit in November, but the strikes hit the economy

Growth in telecoms and software companies helped the UK economy expand by just 0.1% in November, says ONS director of economic statistics Darren Morgan.

Pubs and bars also did well as people went out to watch the World Cup matches, he explains, with England and Wales playing in Qatar.

However, this has been “partially offset” by further declines in some manufacturing industries, including pharmaceuticals (where production can be erratic).

The strikes have also hit the transport and postal sectors, says Morgan, adding:

“However, the economy has continued to contract over the last three months – mainly due to the impact of an extra public holiday linked to the funeral of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth in September.”

Commenting on today’s GDP figures, Darren Morgan said: (1/3)

⬇️ pic.twitter.com/ivYR1sEsgU

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 13, 2023

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Darren Morgan continued: (2/3)

⬇️ pic.twitter.com/ghX6AbpIYW

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 13, 2023

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Darren Morgan also said: (3/3)

⬇️ pic.twitter.com/g9dLabtuw8

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 13, 2023

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1613793934848688129″,”id”:”1613793934848688129″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”752e96ee-55fd-43e9-a367-0c2cd231092e”}}”/>

Hunt: Lowering inflation will accelerate economic growth

Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor of the Exchequer, says:

“We have a clear plan to halve inflation this year – a sneaky hidden tax that has led to increases in interest rates and mortgage costs, holding back growth here and around the world.

“To support families through this difficult time, we will provide an average of £3,500 in support to each household this year and next – but the most important help we can give is sticking to the plan to halve inflation this year so we can get the economy to grow again “.

UK GDP, November 2022
Photo: ONS

UK GDP: details

Great Britain services the sector grew 0.2% in November and the Men’s World Cup in Qatar provided a boost to pubs and bars as fans flocked to watch the matches.

However production continued to struggle, with production down 0.5%.

The construction the sector stagnated.

GDP grew 0.1% in November with

▪️ services up 0.2%
▪️ manufacturing down 0.5%
▪️ construction flat (0.0%)

➡️ https://t.co/TbV9f82F6z pic.twitter.com/fqg8kNF4c6

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 13, 2023

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Here are details of how the UK economy fared in November, from the Office for National Statistics:

  • Services sector increased by 0.2% in November 2022, following an increase of 0.7% (adjusted upwards from an increase of 0.6% in our previous publication) in October 2022; the largest contribution came from administrative and support services and information and communication activities.

  • Consumer Services output rose 0.4% in November 2022, following an increase of 1.5% (adjusted upwards from an increase of 1.2% in our previous publication) in October 2022; the biggest contributor to growth was the food and beverage service business in the month the football world cup kicked off.

  • production capacity decreased by 0.2% in November 2022, after a decrease of 0.1% (revised down from the previous publication) in October 2022; industry was the main driver of negative production growth in November 2022, partially offset by positive contributions from mining and quarrying.

  • The construction sector was flat in November 2022 after an increase of 0.4% (revised downwards from an increase of 0.8% in our previous publication) in October 2022.

The ONS estimates that monthly GDP is now 0.3% below pre-Covid-19 levels in February 2020.

GDP: The UK economy grew by 0.1% in November.

Breaking: The UK economy grew slightly in November, better than City economists had expected [they had forecast a 0.2% contraction].

The Office for National Statistics reports that UK GDP grew by 0.1% in November, a slowdown from the 0.5% increase recorded in October.

But “looking at the bigger picture”, adds the ONS, GDP fell by 0.3% in the three months to November 2022.

Here Michael Hewson, chief market analyst CMC Markets UK, on UK GDP figures in about 10 minutes…

This morning we will get the latest November GDP data for the UK economy, which is supposed to indicate that the UK economy is already in a slight recession. With the economy contracting in the third quarter, it is quite likely that we can expect further contraction in the fourth quarter.

Monthly GDP in October rose by 0.5%, although on a three-month basis the trailing economy contracted by -0.3%. This rolling 3-month figure is expected to remain unchanged in this morning’s November figures with another -0.3%, while the monthly number is expected to fall by -0.2%.

All sectors of the economy are forecast to contract in November, with industrial and industrial production slowing down by -0.2%, construction output by -0.3% and the services index by -0.1%.

This may be why the pound has underperformed in recent days as markets believe the Bank of England does not have as much room to hike rates given how fragile the UK economy appears, with both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank believing there is more headroom.

Introduction: The UK’s November GDP report is approaching

Good morning and welcome to our ongoing coverage of business, financial markets and the global economy.

We’ll soon find out how well or badly the UK economy fared in November as recession looms.

The Office for National Statistics is due to release its monthly GDP estimates for November at 7am. Economists predict the UK economy contracted by around 0.2% in November, after a better-than-expected 0.5% increase in October.

Graph showing UK GDP to October 2022

A fall in GDP in November would not officially put the UK into a technical recession – defined as contraction for two consecutive quarters – but it could mean it is close.

UK GDP fell by 0.3% in the third quarter of 2022, so a fall in the October-December quarter would mean a recession (data for the fourth quarter will be known in a month).

Rising energy prices hit the economy, weakening consumer spending as the cost of living crisis left consumers with less to spend.

Alvin Tan With RBC Capital Markets told clients:

We expect that in November GDP contracted again.

Retail sales provided a good indicator of activity recently and fell by 0.4% m/m in November.

UK monthly GDP on the cards in the session aheadhttps://t.co/LozYN9BJus

— ForexLive (@ForexLive) January 13, 2023

\n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/ForexLive/status/1613782035344097281″,”id”:”1613782035344097281″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”58eb5d5f-7276-4d1c-a265-cefc550aed78″}}”/>

Analysts at an investment bank Nomura also predicted a month-on-month decline in November, saying:

“We believe GDP should fall given weaker polls and higher inflation, and as such we forecast a 0.3% m/m decline in November.”

British builders warned this week that demand fell last fall, amidst the turmoil following the mini-budget.

Timetable

  • 7am GMT: UK GDP report for November

  • 7am GMT: UK trade report for November

  • 9:00 GMT: Germany’s full-year GDP growth report

  • 10:00 GMT: Eurozone trade balance for November

  • 15:00 GMT: University of Michigan US Consumer Sentiment Index

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